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Mathematical Probabilities of Poker Decisions
Poker decisions require knowledge of mathematical probabilities, but the game is far more complex and cannot be completely described mathematically. In blackjack, where the dealer always plays the same way, it is possible to calculate the best decision for each hand. No such calculation is possible in poker because you are competing against different players, each of whom plays their own way. Not only do individual players differ, but each poker table develops its own group dynamics that changes as players enter and leave the game. The replacement of a single passive player with an aggressive one can instantly alter the mood of a poker table and necessitate changes in decision making.
The combination of mathematics, psychology, and social dynamics makes poker a rich and fascinating game. Mastering poker requires hours and hours of playing in different settings with different people. However, many people place too much emphasis on the psychological aspects of the game. They think poker is all about bluffing and reading body language. The fact is, poker has an underlying strategy that must be followed for there to be any chance of survival, let alone winning.
Correct strategy bases decisions on the knowledge available to you of the cards and your opponents. You never have perfect knowledge of your opponents, their cards, and the cards to come. Given imperfect information, you must assess what is most likely to happen. Decisions must be based on the most probable outcome of a hand, not on what you hope will happen.
Before discussing the actual play of hands, it is necessary to have the facts that intelligent decisions are based on. This section, which is meant to be used as a reference, contains tables, graphs, and summaries of important information and concepts.
There are five factors to consider in every poker decision. After summarizing the five decision factors, each one is discussed in detail. How knowledge of these factors translates into actual play is the subject of the next web-page.
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